Amazin' Avenue: FanPosts

My Projected 2009 Depth Chart/Roster

patrick6h — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 21:01:11 -0000

Acquired By:

Free Agency:

Trade:

SP1: Johan Santana

SP2: Aj Burnett or Derek Lowe

SP3: Mike Pelfrey

SP4: John Maine

SP5: Jon Niese

Long Reliever: Brian Stokes

Lefty Specialist: Brandon Lyon

Righty Specialist: Kevin Gregg

Middle Reliever: Joe Smith

Middle Reliever: Luis Ayala

Setup: Juan Cruz

Closer: Brian Fuentes

Catcher: Bengi Molina

First Base: Carlos Delgado

Second Base: Orlando Hudson

Third Base: David Wright

Shortstop: Jose Reyes

Left Field: Eric Byrnes

Center Field: Carlos Beltran

Right Field: Ryan Church

Bench:

Brian Schiender

Argenis Reyes

Nick Evans or Daniel Murphy

Endy Chavez

Angel Pagan

Poll

Do You Agree?

Evaluating the middle relief options

Reg Dunlop — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 18:22:09 -0000

While most of the MSM will be looking at big ticket starters and a closer to replace Billy Wagner, the Mets achillies heel this year was clearly middle relief. Middle releif is probably the most difficult area to evaluate because of the small sample size and high visability nature of the job. Traditional metrics like W-L and ERA will flucuate wildy from year to year, so giving a big contract to a pitcher who had "good year" is usually a losing proposition. K rate, BB, rate, GB%, LOB%, and HR rate are better ways to structure middle relief. But with the lack of power arms in the Mets organization, they are more likely to fill slots via free agency.

Assuming the Mets will carry 12 pitchers, there are six middle relief slots available. I will assume that nobody will be traded or released. The Mets have two LOOGY's in Feliciano and Schoeneweis, and a ROOGY in Joe Smith. Sanchez and Heilman are both under control as all purpose relievers. That leaves one slot to fill either with an internal option, or through free agency.

Internal options:

Brian Stokes: His 7.02 K/9, 2.16 BB/9, and 83% LOB% in 33 IP with the Mets were significantly better than his previous MLB totals. Because of his ability to start he could function as both a long reliever and a short man. Manuel seemed to trust him down the stretch, but his relative success this year could be an aberration. Verdict: Minor League Contract

Luis Ayala: If the Mets sign a closer, and re-sign Ayala, he could return to his more traditional set up role. Ayala has been considered an effective set up man through out his career but he struggled in his first full season since coming back from surgery in 2006. However his career strikeout rate (5.83/9) and his career LD% (21%) point to signs of a pitcher who has been more lucky then good. Verdict: Pass

Brandon Knight: In 10 minor league seasons (1254 IP) he struck out 1133 batters and walked 438. He had 10K and 7BB in limited work in the majors this year. At best he would be a cheap long reliever. Verdict: Minor League Contract

Eddie Kunz: His minor league K/9 rate of 7.9 and BB/9 rate of 4.7 does not inspire confidence. (In me at lest) He is an extreme ground ball pitcher who gave up a home run in his 2.2 innings of MLB work. A fluke? Or a sign that he doesn't have the stuff to be effective at the Major League level? There has to be a GM out there who thinks his ability to accumulate saves at the college and AA level is worth something. Verdict: Trade Bait

Free Agent options:

There is not a whole lot out there to get excited about. But a couple of names aroused my interest.

Kyle Farnsworth: One of the biggest names on the list. Don't let Yankees fan fool you. He is a good pitcher. In 2008 he posted a 9.1 K/9, 3.28 BB/9, and LOB% of 84.7% after posting K/9 rates over 10 in three of the previous four seasons. He was victimized by the long ball (2.24/9) and by a high BABIP (.335). Because of his baggage in New York he could end up being a media whipping boy if he fails. Verdict: Worth a reasonable contract

Bobby Howry: A contact pitcher who seemed to run into some bad luck this year to the tune of a .354 BABIP. He doesn't have high K rate (7.75/9 career) but he also doesn't walk too many. (2 or under/9 the last 4 years) He also has career LOB% of 75%. Verdict: If all else fails

Dennys Reyes: Another player who has been considered an effective set up man over the past few years. He struggled with control in 2007, but was effective in 2006 and 2008. He doesn't have a high strikeout rate (8.12 career) but he can get ground balls, (56.7% career GB%) and strand runners (91.7, 77.3, 87.6 LOB% the past three years). Plus he would fit in with Omar's plans to acquire players named Reyes. Verdict: Worth a reasonable contract

Arthur Rhodes: He's old, but he's still good for a strikeout an inning. His work load would have to be limited. Verdict: A last resort

Darren Oliver: He did a fine job for the Mets in 2006 and has been a reliable long reliever for the Angels. But the Mets need short relief and have other internal options for a long reliever. Verdict: Pass

Guillermo Mota: J/K. (Please don't ban me for mentioning his name) Verdict: Torture

Matt Wise: Oh yea. We tried that already. Verdict: Minor League Contract or Pass

Juan Cruz: This guy intregues me. As a releiver for Arizona the past two years he has posted K/9 rates of 12.84 and 12.37. Unfortunately he has a BB/9 rate of 4.72 and 5.40. In spite of the high walk rate he has posted LOB% of 74.8 and 83.6. He is only 30 years old. This seems like the type of high risk, high reward pitcher the Mets have lacked and he might be under the radar enough to be a low risk signing. Verdict: Take a chance

Burgos being sought in deaths of 2 women

BobbyV_Incognito — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 05:01:33 -0000

Burgos sought in fatal car accident

New York Mets pitcher Ambiorix Burgos was driving an SUV when it slammed into two women who later died of their injuries, police said.

Police Col. Eulogio Taveras said Josefina Minaya Martinez, 38, and Angely Fana, 29, were struck Tuesday evening by a new Hummer registered to the 24-year-old reliever in his Caribbean homeland. The women died at a hospital in Nagua, a town 112 miles north of the capital, Santo Domingo.

Seems like a safe bet we've seen the last of him, regardless of the outcome of the investigation. Between his shoulder surgery and the domestic violence charge from his girlfriend, his future with the Mets looked tenuous at best.

What's guts got to do with it?

xnumberoneson — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 16:05:21 -0000

I turned on the radio after the game and learned that the biggest problem with the Mets is lack of "guts." Silly me. I thought it was the bullpen.

If you listen to the radio talkers and read the papers, then you know what the 2008 Mets were lacking: guts, fire, heart, passion, intensity and grit.

Funny. No mention at all of having a single pitcher - any pitcher - who could get people out after the 7th inning. OK, they had one guy in Johan Santana, but he can't pitch every night. The 2008 Mets lost 30 games in which they had a lead or were tied after 6 innings. The team ERA was 3.95 in the first 6 innings, good for 5th in the NL. From innings 7 and beyond the team ERA inflated to 4.30, 4th worst in the NL. The Phillies, thanks in no small part to their true MVP Brad Lidge, were first at 3.28. Even the crummy Brewers bullpen was better at 4.19. That's really all you need to know about this team. They are packing their bags today because of the bulpen, period.

What about "Clutch" hitting? Here are the numbers on the season:

                             RISP                         RISP 2-0ut                7th inning +
Mets              .253/.351/.390            .223/.363/.347          .246/.324/.361
Phillies         .263/.365/..443           .233/.373/.391          .242/.329/.410
Brewers       .245/.337/.405            .208/.327/.340          .249/.327/.438

So the Phillies were a little better in the clutch, particulary in SLG, but the numbers aren't nearly as different as you might expect given the narrative that the Phillies have "heart and guts" and the Mets don't. You also have to take into account the fact that Citizens Bank Park is going to inflate the Phillies' numbers a bit. The Brewers, who were labelled chokers in their own right, topped the NL in SLG after the 7th inning, but still scored fewer overall runs than both the Mets and the Phillies.

It's fair to make the argument that the Mets were killed by a lack of situational hitting, but the case isn't nearly as strong as the one for the bullpen. Even an average bullpen would have given this team a division title. Heck, even a slightly better than worst in the league bullpen would have put this team in the postseason. In that case we would be talking about how the Mets had the "guts" to come back from last year's collapse and this year's awful first half. We'd be talking about how Wright, Reyes, Beltran and Delgado helped this team overcome adversity. Nobody would be talking about "breaking up the core."

I don't want to hear any more about how this team needs a "Pete Rose" type of player. Sorry, but all of David Eckstein's scrappy-ness and Aaron Rowand's guts and Orlando Hudson's "sacrificing his body" can't make Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez, Scott Schoeneweis, Pedro Feliciano and Luis Ayala get anybody out.

Now that the Mets are done...my postseason predictions

erich10031 — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 06:43:02 -0000

National League:

Division Series --

The Phillies will beat the Brewers. The Phillies are decent this year (I don't think they will make it past the Cubs, nor would they win the World Series if they somehow did) -- good enough to do away with the Brewers, whose problems can be summed up as "C.C. Sabathia can't pitch every game."

The Cubs win over the LA Dodgers. Apparently, to win the NL West, all you have to do is not lie there like a dead moose, waiting to be skinned/dressed by Sarah Palin. A .519 win percentage translates as "slightly better than a dead moose" when talking about playoff teams. The Cubs have 100 years of experience in finding ways to lose, but will save that for the World Series.

League Championship --

Cubs over Phillies. No wise-ass remarks...the Cubs are just a better team than the Phillies.

American League:

Division Series --

Tampa Bay over Minnesota/Chicago White Sox. It doesn't matter who ends up winning the AL Central, since either way they will be the AL equivalent of the Phillies...not bad, but not WS material either. Tampa Bay has enough momentum from their "worst to first" season to win this one.

LA Angels over Boston. Unfortunately, what are probably the two best teams will meet up here, not in the WS. I think the Angels are somewhat better, and am not sure the Red Sox are entirely over their long-standing tendency to lose when it really matters.

League Championship --

Angels over Rays. This is the point where the Rays suddenly realize this is the first time they've been out of last place...something they do will cost them going to the World Series.

World Series: Angels over Cubs. 100 years of failure back this prediction.

The Reason We Are Mets Fans

JM_Mets — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 06:05:40 -0000

Admit that when Ryan Church recorded the final out yesterday you were in no mood for the closing ceremonies of Shea Stadium. Admit that for a fleeting moment, you were thinking the stadium would empty and whatever was planned for Shea's requiem would pass through quickly, as fitting as a 4th of July parade in February. Admit that you wanted to slam down the remote or get on the 7 train and forget that you are a Mets fan for at least a day. Admit that you wanted to go directly to the stages of grief that follow immediately after a season ends so abruptly: bitter disappointment, anger, resentment, depression, and acceptance.

Then we realized why we are Mets fans. You could not leave as soon as you saw the Florida Marlins congratulating themselves as if they won the seventh game of the World Series and cured cancer simultaneously. You managed a faint smile when you heard a distinct command from the Mets fans: "Get off our field...Get off our field." If you were at the game, the combination of the weather and the play on the field served as a microcosm of 46 years of New York Mets baseball: A dismal beginning of heavy rain and a lack of clutch hitting, followed by glimmers of brilliant sunshine, home runs and sparkling flashes of pitching and defensive excellence, concluded by ultimate disappointment and, after acceptance, final hope. Of course you did not leave.

And so with emotions about the 2008 season in abeyance, with questions about clutch hitting and abysmal relief pitching and Jerry Manuel held back, you were forced to get ready to acknowledge something tender and noble about your team in the seconds after the rawness of an in-you-face betrayal (see above: resentment). Only the Mets. Only the Mets could do this to you. Force you to smile when you want to wear a grimace.

The ceremonies started slowly, of course. They put some cheesy logo over the mound. For a second you thought Lenny Dykstra was going to come in on skis and slalom through the cardboard cut-outs of players set up in the outfield. There was some announcement that Jim Hickman couldn't be there -- (who?). Nolan Ryan couldn't make it either - (not a real Met anyway!). Then there was Pete Flynn, the grounds crew guy - (Oh yeah...I remember him.) By the time they rolled out Ralph Kiner, you were back wherever you were when you realized you were a Mets fan.

For so many in this city, remembering that certain truth that you are a Mets fan was as easy as remembering the first time you knew what a baseball was. It is a truth with roots as strong as a certain other baseball organization in this city. For me, remembering where I was when I realized I was a Mets fan is the physical equivalent of remembering my father. By the time I was born in 1969, the transition was complete. A full-fledged Brooklyn Dodger fan was a complete New York Mets fan. His son was born into that without doubt, introspection or review. It was just a matter-of-fact.

When the early-mid 1960's Mets were trotted out yesterday, the solidification of how long this association went on was evident. I remember my dad talking about those early days. The night Duke Snider hit a home-run to win a game in the Polo-Grounds in '62. How every game was on free-TV. Then the uniforms changed and the Mets of the awful mid-late 1970's teams paraded out. Craig Swan, John Stearns, Lee Mazzilli, Dave Kingman, Doug Flynn. Yes, Doug Flynn. They all immediately triggered the dormant brain cell image of me sitting in my parent's living room watching my father take off his necktie after getting home from work. My mother to my father: "Joe, if you and Joseph are going to the ballgame tomorrow you better remember to...." All the words after, "...you and Joseph are going to the ballgame tomorrow..." are filed somewhere else. Instead I remember that instant feeling of uninhibited seven-year-old joy that I was going to see the Mets play an actual game at Shea Stadium. So on July 1, 1976 I saw John Matlack beat the Cardinals 13-0. John Milner hit a grand slam. I was hooked instantly. For the next seven years the Mets began a streak of finishing in last or next-to-last place. I am sure it is not true, but I think I watched every game.

The first trickling of 1980's Mets instantly brought back memories of another rainy day. July 27, 1984. Mets vs. Cubs. 1984 was the year that seven year losing streak ended. The Mets had Darryl, Davey and Doc and it was July and they were in first place. I went to Shea with my Dad; for the first time Shea was like my Dad said it used to be when the Mets were good: loud and electric. Shea was full. Full! The rain ended and the Mets beat the Cubs 2-1. George Foster broke a 1-1 tie with a SAC fly. Gooden got the win. I floated home and canceled a fishing trip in Sheepshead Bay with my cousin the next day because the Mets were on the 'Game of the Week' for the first time I could remember. They lost and wound up losing to the Cubs by a couple of games at the end of the season.

Next Strawman, Keith, Kid, Ron walked through the outfield. You remember running home from school to pick up Mets-Astros, Game 6 on a weekday afternoon in October 1986. You remember 1985 and that fr$#dks Whitey Herzog. I remember that other Game 6 vs. the Red-Sox in '86. I had my pillow in my mouth and bit down hard the entire 10th inning, until the ball got by Buckner. You remember being so supremely confident that Keith was going to get that hit in the sixth inning of Game 7, when the Mets trailed by 3. You remember turning to your father and asking where he was when the Dodgers finally won it in '55. "I came home from school and turned the game on. My father wasn't into baseball that much so I didn't think to ask him what the score was. But he knew I was into it and said, '2-0, Dodgers'. So I was at home watching when they won." What about in '69, Dad? "I was at work and a lot of people took a late lunch. There was a restaurant downtown called Joseph's. They had the game on. A bunch of us watched it from there. The celebration they had right after the Mets won was better than the official ticker-tape parade a few days later."

If you then stopped to realize the horror of September 2007 and 2008 had receded, at least until tomorrow morning, you were glad. When Mike Piazza made his appearance, you remember that Shea, both literally and figuratively, helped heal the realization of true horror in September 2001. And you remembered where you were that day. If you then allowed yourself to be reflective, you realized that, for a Mets fan, the closing ceremonies of Shea Stadium were of more consequence than you anticipated or cared to admit. They were of more consequence not because of any need to bend a knee to a "citadel" of baseball, or speak in hushed tones of demi-gods memorialized in stone tablets in the outfield. It is precisely because of the imperfect ordinariness of the place that you realized a meaningful connection. Like the garage or closet you keep promising to clean out, Shea was always there. Shea was there, so says your Dad, when you watched Jimmy Qualls break up Tom Seaver's perfect game from your infant crib. It was there when you were in grade school when Ron Hodges hit Craig Swan in the back trying to throw a runner out at second base. It was there when you were in High School, working part time at the local supermarket, listening to two housewives shopping for groceries recount how, the night before, Eric Davis slid hard into Ray Knight at third base and Knight punched him in the face. Shea was there when you skipped English 103 and Intro to Global Political Economy one day as a college freshman to go to opening day. Shea was there when there was no cable TV in Brooklyn and you listened to Bob Murphy happily recap El-Sid's domination of the Pirates on a random August night. Shea was there the first time you went to a game after your Dad passed away.

Shea was there for all the Mets fans who sat through the leaky pipes, out-of-order washrooms, bad food, traffic and 747's. Shea was there because that is where the Mets played. You were there because you were a Mets fan. You are a Mets fan because New York City, for all the success of the other team, has always been a National League city -- at least that is what my Dad always told me.

That is why you watched the closing ceremonies. So tear the old place down. There won't be any playoffs this year. Maybe it is better off. We have a clean break. Next year, we move into a beautiful new stadium. We will have to get used to being in a beautiful new stadium. Maybe we will get some relief pitching, finally. Then you watch Tom Seaver and Mike Piazza, Mets Hall-of-Fame royalty, walk out the open wall of center field at Shea. You watch them close the door. You know everything there is to know about the place and it is over.

Then you think it is time to remember this year again. It is time to get serious about the required teeth-gnashing deserving of this year's collapse. Then my mother, no sports fan but conditioned after a lifetime of Little League, CYO baseball and endless broadcasts, sits on the sofa while the closing ceremonies are on TV. Content that her grown-up son came in from the city to spend a Sunday afternoon with her at home in Brooklyn, she knits while the ceremonies unfold. Realizing that this is all about the last game at Shea, she looks up briefly and says, "You know your father proposed to me at Shea Stadium." No, I didn't know that. He never told me.

Mets Re-gain Ground, Beat Fish

jwstegall — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 03:57:07 -0000

The Mets have been on thin ice as of late in both of the N.L East and the N.L Wild Card. They now have their remaining games against the Marlins as they will try to clinch a playoff spot. The Mets, Phillies, and Brewers are in the mix for those final 2 spots on the N.L playoff list

IN NEW YORK: The Mets today were forced to pitch Johan Santana today against the Marlins in order to get a most needed win and were in luck as the Mets beat the Marlins 2-0. Santana pitched a complete game and only giving up 3 hits all together. Santana, gave Manager Jerry Manuel a big sigh of relief with just one game remaining on the schedule. Their offense certainly picked it up as David Wright went 2-3 in the game and the runs being scored by Ramon Martinez and Carlos Delgado. The Mets now trail the Brewers by a half a game in the N.L Wild card and the Phillies by 1.5 games, upon their games today.

IN PHILLIDELHIA: The Phillies out of the three teams listed are the most likely to make the playoffs. Today they were playing against the Nationals with Jamie Moyer heading to the hill for the Phills. With a win today, the Phillies would clinch the divsion. They were able to edge out Washington 4-3, therefore clinching the N.L East for the second straight year. Moyer pitched great going 6 innings and only giving up 1 run. The Phillies had Jayson Werth going deep for them. The Phillies now have the divsion clinched, limiting the Mets options.

IN MILLUAKEE: The Brewers, a hopefull for the N.L Wild Card have their final two games at home against the Cubs. They currently have a half game lead over the Mets after the victory today. The Brewers, however were unable to finish off the deal as they fall to the Cubs 7-3. They were unable to get starter Ben Sheets going as he struggles and only goes 2.1 innings! The Brewers will have C.C Sabathia going for them Tommorow.

Well lets take a look at the Current N.L Wild Card Standings after today...

METS/BREWERS

Both Teams are tied in this race and will have pitchers, both on shot rest going for them on Sunday. The Mets will have Oliver Perez going for them and the Brewers will have C.C going for them. The Mets now have a great shot to take this divsion tommorow with a cluch performance by Ollie and struggles from C.C.

jwstegall writes for othernyteams.blogspot.com

Brewers lose, but Ollie Perez?

mrnevadedd — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 00:47:05 -0000

Let's hope the good Ollie shows up. There are some eery conincidentals about this year's game 162 and last years. Like last year, we have an unreliable lefty who is in his walk year carrying our fate in his arm. I hope Ollie really wants a big contract wherever he goes next year and wants to earn it tomorrow. For some reason though, I feel magic in the air. Ya Gotta Believe!! Let's Go Mets!

"THAT'S GANGSTA!"

LOUtheMETSfan — Sat, 27 Sep 2008 23:33:18 -0000

May not be politically correct, but it's the truth. Those words, "That's gangsta" were uttered by New York Mets manager Jerry Manuel as the answer to the first question pitched to him after Saturday's win against the Florida Marlins, known in some circles as October spoilers. Perhaps the question was: What did you think of Santana's performance?

For some ungodly reason DTV wasn't showing the METS / marlins game. I had spent the morning and early noon time attending the D.C. book festival (bad idea). A sea of humanity sweating in the noon day muck and mud of the Washington mall. I said the hell with it and came home.

Tried getting on the blog but bloggers didn't seem to be feeling me. It was definitely a veteran blog atmosphere. So I just let it go and waited for the game to end.

I watched the highlights on MLB.com and the noise of Shea after each Santana strikeout sent chills through my body. Johan Santana pitched a gem. Yes, he was...Gangsta!

All tied up scenerio . . . How does that work?

XtrmeCarnage82 — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 13:41:36 -0000

What would happen if at the end of this weekend us, the Phils, and the Brewers are all tied?

Is the division determined first and then the wildcard?

Do we have the head to head advantage over the Phils?

Will they make us play for the division and then the loser have to play for the wildcard?

I have asked some cooworkers but no one is sure of how it would work. I hope it doesn't come to this but as we all know with our Mets anything is possible. Good or Bad !!

Late Notice: Pre-Game Beer, Anyone?

IanB in MD — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 20:33:44 -0000

Hey, my wife and I are in town for tonight's game. It'll be my last game at Shea Stadium. (Awwww.) Anyway, we are going to stop by the Gaslight Bar at 4317 Queens Boulevard for a couple of drinks before the game. We should be there around 5:30 or so, depending on how quickly we travel from the Upper West Side.

My brother, that jerk Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright, met kingcritical and his brother there last month. It is a fine place for a pre-game beer.

I will be wearing a Mets hat and a Mr. Met tee-shirt. My wife will have a pair of crutches near her.

If I don't meet anyone there, then Let's Go Mets!

Hands down, far and away, by all measures, without a doubt

kingcritical — Thu, 25 Sep 2008 03:47:56 -0000

The worst loss of the season.

Seventh inning: Man on third, no outs.
Eighth inning: Man on third, no outs.
Ninth inning: Man on third, no outs.

One run to show for it, and the Mets can't get one more across.

Phillies lose. Brewers win. Mets lose.

Worst loss I've seen all year.

Free Adam Kennedy!

ZaBlanc — Sat, 20 Sep 2008 02:56:06 -0000

A quick post, because I haven't participated in AA so long and I miss you guys. :-)

First, I am proud to say I that I now think of Carlos Beltran as a more clutch player. I am not admitting I was wrong. I am saying he's changed. He's definitely pulled out more clutch hitting late in games and I GIVE A STANDING OVATION to it!!! Very happy with Carlos.

Though 2008 is not done yet, here's how I feel about 2009:

VERY GOOD. The Mets lineup is set. We can definitely tweak, but with Carlos Delgado himself again after one and a half years, the Mets are signed and ready to go. I don't think anything has to change, but I wouldn't mind a couple tweaks.

First, if we can bring in a good LF, I'd be game. Tatis was a surprise this year, but not sure I'll count on him for 2009. Secondly, FREE ADAM KENNEDY! I like the guy, and I think the Mets need some more character. The 2B position is a great place for that. We have crap there now and I'd like to see us stabalize. I don't want to see the Mets spend $$$ for that position. Good defense. Good hitting.

I like Kennedy.

Pitching-wise, the Mets have one of the most promising rotations in baseball. They are YOUNG and GOOD. Santana, Perez, Maine, and Pelfrey are a solid core -- good, and even have room for improvement. When Pedro Martinez is your #5 starter, that's a damn good thing.

I say forego any signings for starters, and focus focus focus on bullpen. While it'd be pricey (and obvious), go get K-Rod! The Mets are World Series contenders in 2009 with him...it's worth it. Go get him.

I'm happy with 2008 and happy with 2009...so, it's good to be a Mets fan right now. Now let's finish off these Braves!!!!

METS WIN: coin-toss with Brewers

losangelesmets — Fri, 19 Sep 2008 21:22:12 -0000

Today, the Mets something and they have not even played a game yet. They won the tie-breaking coinflip wiht the brewers to decide where a 1 game playoff would be played in case of a same record at the end of the season tie.

While I hope iot never comes to that. Still, I will take any win the Mets can get right now.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8582180/Mets-win-coin-flip,-would-host-Brewers-tiebreaker

That Would Have Sucked: Joel Sherman

Shawn K Hunter — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 23:17:30 -0000

Exactly three months ago, NYPost columnist Joel Sherman approached "The Gates of Sell" and proposed unto St. Omar several fire-sale ideas. His advice? Sell high. Now while hindsight is always 20-20 (or 50-30, the Mets' record since Sherman's blurb went to print) perhaps Sherman was speculatory-selling while high, a la Pineapple Express . A very high on simpleton, low on Sabermetrics breakdown of a few JS moves TWHS:

1. Jump ship and trade Carlos Beltran to the Dodgers for Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, James Loney, Matt Kemp and/or Chad Billingsley.

Beltran: Hit the ground, runnin'; 12 dingers, 59 RBI last three months, Gold Glove defense, mole.

Pierre: Hit the Disabled List; three RBI in as many months. WoW! Luis Castillo and Pierre reunited? 100 combined SB! Adjust your telephone booth setting to: Six Years and Four Knees Ago.

Jones: Hit the Disabled List; seven RBI in three months. 'Nuff said.

Loney: Cold, Hot, Cold; decent run production but adding Loney would have prevented the (re?)emergence of Delgado the past three months.

Kemp: Solid power numbers but posted OBP under .300 the last two months, and again with this trade, we may never have witnessed the development of Evans/Murphy at Shea Stadium.

Billingsley: Killer 3:1 K/BB ratio, 8-3 record, ERA under 3.00 over span of last three months. But served with a Juan or an Andruw, it'd be like a Happy Meal with a Diet Coke.

Dos. Prophetically move Billy Wagner for Bill Hall and/or prospects Matt LaPorta/Mat Camel.

I don't know what sucks more: The fact that Mr. Peaked-in-May-and-Riding-the-Pine-in-my-Fantasy-League Bill Hall has 1 one knock and 10 ribeyes since July or that Wagner will be rehabbing thru next Labor Day. Call it a wash.

Matt LaPorta = Mike Carp

Mat Gamel = Daniel Murphy

Trois: Swap Pedro Martinez, Aaron Heilman and/or Scott Schoenewies for all the tea in China.

In keeping with Sherman's Sell High mantra, in order to convince any GM to trade for those guys, he would have had to bring along these guys.

Some other notable Shermans I've found to make more sense: Gen. Sherman, The Shermanator, Mr. Charmin, Sherman, Sherman, Joel Sherman.

Any thoughts?

Poll

Who would make a better wingman this Saturday night?

Hunt for October: Can the Mets pull it off?

BarryDeJay33 — Mon, 15 Sep 2008 14:50:52 -0000

With a one game lead over the Phillies in the NL East and the next seven games on the road, the Mets certainly dont have an easy road into the playoffs. Despite the fact the next seven are against the Nats and Braves, the Mets have struggled to get the job done against the scum of the NL East. This past weekend the Braves took two of three from the Amazin's and they certainly had their problems against the Nats. If the Mets have any hope of making the playoffs, the bulpen must step up. Despite the struggles, I strongly believe that the Mets can get the job done with guys they have. Although he blew the lead yesterday new closer Luis Ayala has been pretty solid and has been the key to the Mets late season serge. Along with the MVP Carlose Delgado, Ayala has closed out games that would have been lost by the likes of Aaron Heilman. With the 40 man roster, the Mets have more than enough to get the job done in the bulpen as Joe Smith and Duaner Sanchez have found their stride (its about time). Despite his recent struggles rookie Brian Stokes has been dominant and has filled a huge hole. Also lurking are the likes of Al Reyes and Juan Rincon who are proven guys. Dont be suprised to see the Mets in this years as well as being a tough team to beat with strong bats and dominant starting pitching.

Poll

Can the Mets make the playoffs with the bulpen they have?

Favorite Shea Stadium Memories

Greenpoint Ian — Thu, 11 Sep 2008 19:57:01 -0000

Last Friday's 3-0 loss to the Phillies was, barring the unlikely event that I, living on student loans, pay the going rate on Stubhub for Mets playoff tickets (if the Mets make it), my final game at Shea Stadium. After the game, I started thinking about my favorite memories of Shea. My top 5:

5. August 25, 1985: Mets 9, Padres 3 http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN198508250.shtml

I remember next to nothing about this game, other than that Dwight Gooden pitched and that the Mets beat the Padres, that the crowd was energetic as could be, and that the jet airliners of yore were a lot louder than they are these days. I was 5 years old, and it was the first game I ever attended.

4. July 2, 2004: Mets 11, Yankees 2 http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN200407020.shtml

Kaz Matsui hit 2 HRs, and the Mets absolutely clobbered Mussina and the Yankees. Back in the dark days of 2002-2004, humiliating the Yankees was all I really lived for as a Mets fan, so it was great to see it in my first trip to a Mets-Yankees game. I got loaded on expensive Buds and heckled a lot of Yankees fans.

3. May 14, 1994: Mets 11, Braves 4 http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN199405140.shtml

To me, this was the birth of the Mets-Braves rivalry. With the new divisional alignments, they were now in the same division. John Smoltz gave up a grand slam to Ryan Thompson and proceeded to bean John Cangelosi, who charged the mound, sparking a huge brawl that later made the cover of Sports Illustrated.

2. May 5, 2006: Mets 8, Braves 7 (14 innings) http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN200605050.shtml

This was the game in which I knew that 2006 would be a special year, and that the Mets would finally defeat their arch-nemesis, Atlanta. The Mets of past years would not have come back from being down 1-0, 2-1, 6-2, 7-6 (in the 11th) and finally win at the stroke of midnight on a 2-out double over Andruw Jones' head by David Wright, scoring Beltran. I was there for all 14 innings, and never actually saw Beltran score the winning run, as I was jumping around once Wright's shot hit the warning track.

1. August 22, 2006: Mets 8, Cardinals 7 http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/NYN/NYN200608220.shtml

Before the game, I told the friend I went with that I had never seen a walk-off HR in person. It seemed unlikely that such a thing would happen, as Albert Pujols crushed a 3-run shot and a grand slam to give St. Louis a 7-1 led in the 5th. I was almost ready to leave, but decided to see what the Mets could do in the bottom of the 5th. Carlos Delgado crushed his own grand slam, and we had a game again. In the bottom of the 9th, with the score 7-6, Paul LoDuca hit a one-out single, and Carlos Beltran followed with a laser shot into the Mets bullpen for the stunning come-from-behind win. I finally saw my walk-off HR

Magic Numbers Are People, Too: 2008 Edition

IanB in MD — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 20:26:30 -0000

In 2006 I created the first Mets-by-the-uniform-numbers "Magic Number" countdown. I think it was fun. By my breakdown, today we are at 16, Doc Gooden. After the jump (if I did this correctly) you can find the whole post, which has been modified to reflect the current team a bit...

Let's be real, people, the Mets don't win the NL East every day, so we need to have some good fun with it. (Mr. Met gave me the idea back in '06, BTW.)

So here's my human countdown:

16 - Doc Gooden
15 - CarlosB
14 - Gil Hodges
13 - Wags
12 - Ron Darling
11 - Super Joe (Tim Teufel, Tim Bogar, HIPPO!)
10 - ND Chavez (Rusty Staub)
9 - Todd Hundley (Gregg Jefferies)
8 - Gary Carter
7 - Professor Reyes
6 - Nick Evans (Wally Backman)
5 - Baseball Jesus (Tsuyoshi Shinjo)
4 - Ron Swoboda (Rusty Staub)
3 - Rafael Santana
2 - Marv Throneberry
1 - Mookie Wilson
00 - Mr. Met!

Let me know what you think. I will edit the list to include other names worthy of inclusion. (Optional choices will be in parentheses.)

The "Armando Benitez Effect"

Reg Dunlop — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 16:30:16 -0000

(promoted from fanposts. --eric)

In July of 1999 the Mets handed the torch of "closer" from John Franco to Armando Benitez. His numbers in the three and a half years he spent as Mets closer are as follows:

Year	SV	BS	K/9	BB/9	WHIP	OPSA	WPA
1999	19	3	15.25	5.00	1.19	.525	N/A
2000	41	5	12.55	4.50	1.01	.559	3.10
2001	43	3	10.97	4.72	1.30	.687	3.28
2002	33	4	10.56	3.34	1.05	.603	4.37

By any evaluation these are very good numbers for a reliever. The BB/9 numbers are higher than you would like to see, but the WHIPs are reasonable given the high walk rate. The K/9 numbers are what you want from a bullpen ace. And if "saves" are your thing, Benitez did a good job of compiling them and not blowing them.

And yet the mention of the name Armando Benitez sends a chill down the spine of many a Mets fan. Why? The reason for this can be traced back to three games.

Game 6 1999 NLCS vs. ATL
Game 1 2000 WS vs. NYY
September 23, 2001 vs. ATL

All three were soul-crushing losses aided by, in no small part, Armando Benitez.

So how can someone that was so effective overall be judged by so few bad performances? This phenomenon will henceforth be known as the "Armando Benitez Effect" (ABE)

The ABE occurs because the failures of good relievers are magnified by the high leverage situations in which they most often pitch. We become so used to seeing a star reliever put up good numbers and succeed in most situations that their success becomes mundane. Our brains cannot recall all of the good things an ace reliever does because these events occur so often. However, when this reliever fails, it becomes a memorable event. We can hold on to that information because it was unique. Since any "Blown Save" represents a lost opportunity for our team to win, these failures become even more magnified. When this type of failure happens in a "clutch" situation, (pennant race, playoff game) it becomes a catastrophic event that anyone can easily recall.

In short, good relievers' successes are ordinary and get repressed mentally, while their failures are extraordinary and become highly memorable. This is what happened to Armando Benitez during his tenure with the Mets.

I bring up the ABE because of the situation with Billy Wagner. Wagner has put up excellent numbers with the Mets since joining the team in 2006. Yet his failures in key situations have led many fans to question his value. Now that his career as a Met is likely over, the debate will rage over whether or not to sign Francisco Rodriguez.

K-Rod is on the verge of setting the record for saves in a season and he is widely perceived as being one of the best closers in baseball. Here are his numbers since becoming a closer:

Year	SV	BS	K/9	BB/9	WHIP	OPSA	WPA
2005	45	5	12.16	4.28	1.14	.591	3.04
2006	47	4	12.08	3.45	1.10	.609	4.98
2007	40	6	12.03	4.54	1.25	.605	3.08
2008	55	6	10.27	4.40	1.24	.621	3.77

They are eerily similar to the numbers Benitez put up as a Met except with six more blown saves. So why isn't he perceived as a failure they way Benitez was? Simply put, he doesn't matter to Mets fans. His failures have not been important enough to garner widespread attention and since we, as Mets fans do not have anything invested in him, his minor failures don't matter to us.

If the Mets do sign him to a long-term deal he will likely put up very good to great numbers. (He will certainly put up better numbers than anyone on the team or in the organization could put up) And everyone will love him because he "gets the job done". Until he blows that first big save, in a key situation, in a game the team "has to have". And he *will* fail. All relievers fail at some point. At that point he will go from being a conquering hero to a guy who is not worth the paper his contract was printed on. And everyone will complain about another overpaid, under performing player who doesn't come through in the clutch.

This is the "Armando Benitez Effect"

Edit:

I wanted to add a simplified working definition to further clarify what the ABE is all about. How does this sound?

The "Armando Benitez Effect" - 1. A specific lack of confidence fans of a team have in their closer/relievers, in spite of statistical evidence that indicates the closer/releiver will succeed most times. 2. A feeling of intense nausea brought on by hearing "Who let the dogs out?" by the Baja Men

Why Is Carlos Delgado Getting MVP Consideration?

ams258 — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 14:46:54 -0000

(promoted from fanposts. --eric)

I'm thrilled that Delgado is having such a great second half for the Mets, but he has a lower VORP lower than Reyes, Wright, and Beltran. Even just looking at conventional stats, it's clear that those three are having superior seasons to Delgado. Check it out:

Player	HR	RBI	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
Reyes	13	56	47	13	.300	.359	.478
Wright	27	106	14	5	.291	.380	.513
Beltran	23	100	20	3	.278	.369	.488
Delgado	35	103	1	1	.266	.350	.518

Reyes offers phenomenal baserunning and has fantastic offensive production for a shortstop. Other than homers and a slight discrepancy in slugging percentage, Wright has been superior to Delgado in all offensive categories and has a significant advantage in OBP, the most important offensive stat. And although I wouldn't classify third base as a premium defensive position, it is certainly more difficult to find a good hitting third baseman than first baseman, so Wright offers more value for his position than Delgado. Beltran's numbers are comparable to Wright's, and Beltran plays fantastic defense at a difficult position to play.

The bottom line is that Wright, Beltran, and Reyes offer the Mets great production while playing positions that the Mets would have difficulty finding suitable replacements if any of those three players were injured. Imagine the offensive dropoff if the Mets had to replace Reyes with Damion Easley in their lineup on a daily basis. Delgado, on the other hand, offers poor defense at a position that pretty much anyone besides Mike Piazza can play, so his stats would not be as difficult to replace if the Mets lost him.

There's no denying it - Carlos Delgado has had a nice year, and I would not be at all upset if the Mets picked up his option for next year. But the guy has been nowhere near as valuable as the holy trinity of Reyes, Wright, and Beltran. It would be a shame if the sportswriters missed that when they cast their MVP ballots.