Christina Kahrl explains why the Mets have a better chance of making the playoffs than the Yankees. Her findings are based on Baseball Prospectus's Playoff Odds Report.

Nate Silver thinks Barry Bonds might be a good fit with the Mets. I've supported signing Bonds basically all season now, so I'm not likely to change my position at this point. Having said that, I'd still wager dollars to donuts that he plays nowhere this season.

The fact that the Mets' bullpen and/or lack of hitting has cost Johan Santana numerous wins this season doesn't bother him. The fact remains that with some better support he could be looking at 13-15 wins, and with his sub-3.00 ERA he'd be within reach of a 20-win season and would certainly be in the Cy Young discussion.

At MetsGeek, Alex Nelson looks at the pitchers the Mets will face against the Marlins this weekend.

At MetsBlog, Matt Cerrone and Ted Berg interview Giuseppe Franco. Awesome.

I didn't see any of this game so I won't pretend that I did. Judging by the boxscore and the game thread it appears to have been more of the same, but I'll leave it up to you guys to fill in the blanks. Or Cabbage Head.

Big winners: David Wright, +43.4% WPA, Joe Smith, +34.7% WPA
Big losers: Scott Schoeneweis, -27.1% WPA, Argenis Reyes, -19.0% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Wright the hero, +43.4% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Effing Gerut, -34.6% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +13.8%
Total batter WPA: +36.2%

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by LOUtheMETfan; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Handsome reader Steve sent me an e-mail yesterday asking why I didn't cover starting pitching in my Mets' needs post. In short, I didn't really think that the Mets' rotation was a big problem. Steve pointed out that the Mets are facing two holes in the rotation next season as Pedro Martinez and Oliver Perez become free agents, and that maybe the Mets should look to shore up one of those spots now.

All of this preceded John Maine's early exit last night due to shoulder stiffness, so either Steve is more prescient than he lets on or he's just an advocate for general preparedness. Either way, regardless of Maine's status I'll take this space to address the Mets' starting pitching situation.

Area of need: starting pitching

A lot can change in a few months, for better or worse. At the end of April, the Mets had two dependable starters: Johan Santana and John Maine. At the end of July, they have seemingly three dependable starters: Santana, Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez. Maine has become undependable because of the rash of mysterious injuries he has incurred over the past couple of weeks. Absent those, he is at least moderately dependable: he'll usually go six-ish innings, though the quality of those innings could vary widely.

Pedro Martinez is still technically on the bereavement list following his father's death, though he is slated to throw an extended bullpen session tomorrow and is slated to start on Friday against the Astros in Houston. There's no telling what the Mets will get from Pedro, though. His game scores since coming back from the disabled list at the beginning of June have gone thusly: 46, 35, 57, 25, 32, 36, 53, 60. That last mark is deceiving, because Pedro left after just four innings with -- wait for it -- shoulder stiffness, just like Maine last night. So Pedro will not have pitched in a game in almost three weeks when he takes the mound on Friday, and any expectations for this start or even the rest of the season are a crapshoot at best.

Santana has been mostly great, and the Mets have nothing to worry about there. Pelfrey has been their next-best starter over the last two months, and he looks to be the real deal. He's bound to hit some bumps in the road one of these days, but his achievements this season stand on their own and I think have given him -- and perhaps more importantly, the Mets -- the confidence that he can be a successful big league pitcher. He turned 24 in January and will be cheap and under the Mets' control for a long time, which is plenty exciting.

Perez was mostly awful for the better part of the first three months of the season, but some combination of Dan Warthen and facial hair have suited Perez well, as he has been dominant over his last four starts. Blip or semi-permanent fix, who's to say, but he's the Mets' number three at this point. As mentioned earlier, he is also a free agent at the end of the season, and there's maybe a 50/50 chance that he returns given that he's very young and is likely to be very expensive as a client of Scott Boras.

So what to do? I don't know that there are too many attractive starting pitchers out there. A.J. Burnett will apparently not be traded, and his teammate Roy Halladay, floated a couple of weeks ago, would cost an arm and a leg and, in terms of tradeable talent, the Mets are squarely in the triple-amputee camp. Roy Oswalt? The Astros are evidently buyers in this market. Would the Reds make Aaron Harang or Bronson Arroyo available? They're both in the middle of long-term contracts, and Harang was awesome as recently as last year. He currently sports a 4.76 ERA despite an impressive 108-to-34 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 123 innings. He turned 30 in May and would be a very attractive option, but there's little reason to believe that the Reds would even make him available.

Things get more interesting *after* the season, when the likes of C. C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets and others hit free agency. The aforementioned Burnett can also opt out of his deal with the Blue Jays this winter, and all indications are that he will do just that. Unless a great deal falls in their lap I expect the Mets to stick with what they've got and hope that Maine's injury woes cease to be and Pedro can return at least to serviceability. There may be some interesting names popping up in August when players have to pass through waivers to be traded, so just because July 31 passes doesn't mean the trading season is over.

Newsday talks to Carlos Beltran about his ridiculous catch yesterday.

Pedro Martinez could be back and ready to go as soon as Friday, though Jerry Manuel expects him to throw a bullpen or side session to get him back ready for a return.

Ramirez no, Ibanez yes? If the Mariners lower their asking price the Mets could make a play for Raul Ibanez. He could be a good fit here, as he's a New York native and knows Beltran well. He was also a Type A free agent last season, so the Mets could do well to trade a couple of so-so prospects, hang on to Ibanez through the end of the season, then let him walk away and collect the draft picks.

Everyone's happy about Johan Santana's complete game except Filip Bondy, who says that Santana and the Mets felt pressure to go the distance following last week's disaster against the Phillies.

Interesting article in The Times about how ExxonMobil is using the Nationals' new ballpark's green color and its proximity to Congress to give the impression that they are more environmentally-conscious than they really are. More coverage at Federal Baseball.

At MetsGeek today, Alex Nelson previews the Marlins' pitchers.

Johan Santana finally gets the complete game he should have had a week ago, and drops his ERA to 2.93, good for sixth in the NL. He thoroughly dominated the Cardinals, a solo homerun by Albert Pujols the only real blemish. I'm told that Duaner Sanchez wasn't even allowed out of the clubhouse until the game was over just to be on the safe side.

The same Mets' offense that was stymied by Kyle Lohse a few weeks ago battered him relentlessly through five-plus innings, cranking out seven runs on eleven hits including three homeruns. The Mets tallied 17 hits overall including seven for extra-bases. Santana went 2-for-2 with a run batted in, everyone in the lineup had at least one hit and either scored or drove in a run.

Carlos Beltran made an in-friggin-credible catch at the wall, but let's see him come up big when it's *not* a blowout, eh? Ramon Castro continues to support my theory that Brian Schneider has incriminating photos of Jerry Manuel or Omar Minaya or perhaps both at the same time. What does this guy have to do to get into more than one game a week?

Big winners: Johan Santana, +33.0% WPA, Endy Chavez, +9.4 % WPA
Big losers: Carlos Delgado, -8.8% WPA, Damion Easley, -4.4% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Beltran RBI-single in 3rd, +9.1% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Delgado double-play in 1st, -8.5% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +33.0%
Total batter WPA: +17.0%

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by BobbyV_Incognito; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

I didn't see any of it. I *did* see The Dark Knight at the Alamo Drafthouse Cinema in Austin, where you can eat and consume adult beverages while watching a moviefilm. So I watched the latest Batman installment (editor's note: it rocked), blissfully unaware of the brilliant catastrophe taking place 1,800 miles away. Even as we left the theater and I pulled up MLB.com mobile on my iPhone I had no idea that the Mets' disappointing 8-6 loss was anything but a typical 2008 New York Mets letdown. I figured Johan Santana had a blah start against the Phillies and the Mets weren't able to put enough runs on the board against Joe Blanton to overcome an early deficit.

Again, I saw none of the game, and the internet connection at the Embassy Suites here isn't really strong enough to support the archived video feed from MLB.tv. Nor, for that matter, is the wireless connection I'm stealing from the Mexican restaurant adjacent to our hotel. With that in mind, what follows is based solely on what I've been able to glean from reading the boxscores and the wire service recaps of the game.

I can probably skip the first eight innings, since nobody really cares what happened before the ninth. The pertinent details of those glorious eight frames can be distilled to the following:

1. Johan Santana allowed two runs
2. Johan Santana threw 105 pitches

If there's a corollary to those points it's that Billy Wagner was unavailable for the game because he's old, but that's okay because, as I just read on Mets.com, "Manuel [is] confident [that] Sanchez can close". Duaner Sanchez. I kid you not: that article appears on the Mets' homepage, a few links down from last night's recap. From that article by Jon Blau:

"Duaner is a guy who has a tremendous makeup for that particular role," Manuel said. "I have no hesitation about that. His makeup is really off the charts."

*flips to boxscore* Yes, here it is. Duaner Sanchez, in his first taste as closer in absence of Billy Wagner: 0.000 innings pitched, three hits, three runs, three earned, tremendous makeup, zero outs recorded, every batter reached base, off-the-charts makeup. You just can't make this up. Unfortunately, I have no quote from Manual suggesting that Joe Smith and Pedro Feliciano would also make great closers because of their great strength of character, so they have to settle for simply not getting the job done and can only hope that Jerry Manuel's ironic touch can strike them down some other fine day.

I got an e-mail from some dude last night about signing a petition to stop the pitch count, and I guess you can go sign it if you want. Then again, if you're simply dead set on wasting your time you might as well just go pull the internet's finger and at least get a few cheap laughs out of the deal. I can buy the argument that Santana should have been left in to pitch the ninth with a three-run lead and a high-but-not-Livan-Hernandez-high pitch count. Even if you want to give him fifteen pitches -- bumping him up to 120 for the game -- to try to get through the inning, that would have worked for me.

A lot of people are going to pillory Manuel for taking Santana out of the game, and there is plenty of merit to that argument. The other side of the coin is that the burden of responsibility for this loss is on Sanchez, Smith and Feliciano (Sanchez in particular), for allowing six runs while recording just two outs. Randolph Manuel made a questionable bullpen decision and it backfired, but I don't think it was clearly the wrong decision. In retrospect, sure, it looks terrible, but it's not totally unreasonable to expect your bullpen to get three outs before allowing three (or six!) runs to score. Without the data immediately available to corroborate this, I bet that nine times out of ten, a decent non-closer late-innings guy will get the save with a three-run lead in the ninth. It didn't happen this time, and I think that's on Sanchez et al.

This was an awful, awful loss that will linger for a long, long time, or at least until tonight's awesome win/horrible loss, but it wouldn't be baseball if we didn't dwell on the past a bit. I wanna hear in the comments who you think is to blame for this loss and why. If you think it was Manuel's fault, don't just say that it was clearly the wrong decision. I want to know why.

I'm still in Austin. Anything interesting happen tonight?

Big winners: Johan Santana, +28.0% WPA, Endy Chavez, +14.1% WPA
Big losers: Pedro Feliciano, -53.1% WPA, Duaner Sanchez, -23.6% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Delgado two-run bomb, +19.2% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Taguchi two-run double, -38.6% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -64.0%
Total batter WPA: +14.0%

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by LOUtheMETfan; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

I'm not really the type to say things like "a month ago the Mets would have never come back to win this game", but, frankly, a month ago the Mets would have never come back to win this game. Three guys made this game: Wright, Tatis and Delgado. They drove in all ten runs and went 8-for-13 with three homeruns, a double and a couple of walks. Johan Santana didn't have it tonight and was yanked after just four innings. The bullpen wasn't great, but they were good enough to keep the game close, and when the game is close and the ballpark is pint-sized anything can happen and usually does. That's especially true when you're on a big winning streak and things just find a way to go right for you.

The WPA was fascinating for this game. For starters, check out the rollercoaster graph; I think I puked at turn three. As a refresher, each team starts with a win probability of 50%. This isn't exactly accurate since home teams tend to win more games than road teams, but for the sake of simplicity all games start at 50/50. That means the game is essentially a battle for the other team's 50%. Once a team hits 100% win probability the game is over and that team has won.

Mets' pitchers contributed -60% WPA, which means they blew all of the Mets' starting pot of 50% and then some. That's not a good thing. When your pitching staff digs you into a hole like that you don't usually climb out of it. It's not possible for a team to lose more than 50% of WPA in a game, so when the pitchers lose 60% the hitters have to make up the difference, and in most cases it would be a +10% to the hitters to make an even -50% and a big fat loss. Not tonight, because the Mets' had their hitting shoes on and contributed a mind-boggling +110% WPA, which is enough to win two games and have a little left over for the third. Wow, we all say, but it gets even better. The aforementioned Delgado, Wright and Tatis combined to contribute +125.4% WPA, which means the rest of the offense contributed approximately -15.4%. Throw those three guys out and the rest of the Mets were at -75.4% WPA; keep 'em in the game and it's a Mets victory.

First place, people. How does it taste?

Big winners: David Wright, +42.8% WPA, Fernando Tatis, +42.3% WPA, Carlos Delgado, +40.3% WPA
Big losers: Scott Schoeneweis, -44.6% WPA, Johan Santana, -36.1% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Nine-game winning streak not enough for Wright, +35.1%
Teh sux0rest play: Show blows, -46.4% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -60.0%
Total batter WPA: +110.0%

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by itsmetsforme; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

When you've won nine games in nine days, how do you pick up after taking the next three days off? I guess this question applies to everyone but David Wright and Billy Wagner, who technically didn't take the day off on Tuesday but in retrospect probably should have, Wagner in particular.* I think conventional wisdom says that you don't want to interrupt a hot streak. Something about it being so rare that an entire team is playing in the "zone" that you don't want to forcefully bring it to an end before it would have happened naturally. A lot of it seems like mumbo jumbo to me, but I'll grant that players and teams go through periods where they feel really good, confidence is soaring, everyone's locked in, yada yada. I assume most of us have been there at one point or another, whether it was a pickup basketball game or late night Guitar Hero session. We've all had times where we've felt unbeatable at something, and baseball teams and players presumably go through the same thing.

* Quick anecdote: I missed the first seven or so innings of the All Star game. It was Tuesday, and Tuesday is free movie night. Nothing remotely interesting -- that we hadn't already seen, anyway -- was playing at the two closest theaters, so we schlepped out to Wayne to catch Hancock. Interesting premise, great supporting job by Jason Bateman, movie totally fell apart about an hour in. Probably worth a rent if you like superhero movies or Will Smith or both. Anyway, we get in the car to drive home and I flip on XM to check in on the game. 3-2 National League, though moments later Wagner coughed up a game-tying double to Evan Longoria. I remarked something to the effect of, "!@#$. Big stage, big spot and Wagner just can't get it done." To which Kim replied, "Isn't that kinda what he's known for?" I think she knows more than she lets on sometimes.

Well, whatever the case, there's no telling what kind of momentum the Mets will be able to carry through with them to the by-the-schedule second half of the season. Probably little. They open play with four games in Cincinnati, starting with Johan Santana against Johnny Cueto on Thursday. The Reds are a pretty mediocre team with some solid pitching and a few interesting hitters, including Adam Dunn, who'll be a free agent at season's end and should be on the Mets' first-base radar, copious strikeout totals and all. Of course, the Reds are far from terrible, and the early-season (i.e. April thru June) Mets could easily split or drop three-of-four. The new Mets (where have I heard that before?) should be able to win this series, because this time it counts, and even though our season has come I think we all just want to be playing meaningful games come September.

Beyond the Reds, the Phillies and Cardinals come to Shea for a three-game series apiece before shipping off to Florida for a three spot against the Marlins. After that, the Mets play 14 of 17 games against the dregs of the National League, including stints against the Astros, Padres (they suck, just not against the Mets evidently), Pirates and Nationals. The three non-crap games are against the Marlins, and we can only hope we get the All Star game version of Dan Uggla and not the everything before then version.

A minor programming note: I'm going to be in Austin (Texas, not Massachusetts) from Saturday through Wednesday. Blackfish is going to help out by posting game threads and I'm going to do my best to generate some regular content, and brief recaps at the very least. If anyone feels like posting something of substance in the FanPosts during that time there's a pretty great chance it'll get promoted to the main page as long as it's at least reasonably cogent and above a third-grade reading level. Interesting FanShots will probably be more likely to be promoted than usual, too, in case FanPosts are too verbose and you're more into the whole brevity thing.

(Note: the pic is of Maria Menounos at the ASG celebrity softball game. All baseball uniforms should fit so well.)

Things that went wrong:

• No timely hitting
• Didn't rough up Happ when they had the chance
• Santana had the nerve to pitch a bad inning
• Jerry Manuel has shit where his brains would normally be

And like that the Mets are 5.5 back. Happy independence day!

Big winners: Johan Santana, +25.2% WPA, Ramon Castro, +13.6% WPA
Big losers: Duaner Sanchez, -35.7% WPA, Carlos Beltran, -18.6%
Teh aw3s0mest play: Ramon Castro leadoff double in fifth, +13.2% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Shane Victorino blah blah blah, -39.0% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -10.6%
Total batter WPA: -39.4%

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by pingel; his effort in tonight's game thread embiggens us all.