Having watched roughly every Mets games this season (give or take) I think I can say with a fair degree of certainty that this isn't a great team. They're old, injury-prone, and otherwise inconsistent in a lot of areas. For all of their individual faults, their biggest problem this season has been scoring runs. The pitching has been solid if unspectacular, ranking fifth in the National League with a 3.93 staff ERA. The offense has been generally unimpressive, ranking in the bottom half of the league in almost every conceivable category.

As bad as the Mets have been at the plate, I've had a sneaking suspicion for a little while now that they've been getting short-changed by Fortuna's stingy hand. Our eyes have a way of playing tricks on us, though, so it's always comforting to fall into the cold embrace of empirical data to give you that warm-and-fuzzy about our own oft-shoddy anecdotal memories. To see how the Mets have been doing in the luck department I used a couple of stats.

1. BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play), which is exactly what it says it is. How often are balls in play converted into outs? Leage average is around .300, with better hitters often scattered above and crummy ones sprinkled below.
2. eBABIP (Expected BABIP), which is calculated by taking a batter's line drive rate (LD%) and adding .12. It should be fairly intuitive that the harder you hit the ball the more likely it is to fall into play, so line drives = good.

Here are all Mets regulars (75 PA or more) with their BABIP, eBABIP and delta.

The first thing that jumped out at me was "Brian Schneider has a 32% line drive rate?" And it turns out that, yes, the man who didn't have an extra-base hit all year until a week ago hits a third of his balls in play right on the button. Beyond that, the Mets have six regulars who are significantly underperforming their expected balls in play average. Even Ryan Church, who has hit the heck out of the ball all year long, chould conceivably be doing better if he had been a bit luckier. I know it's easy to explain away statistical oddities by blaming the difference on luck, good or bad, but even the staunchest subjective baseball nut must concede that when you hit the ball "right on the screws", as they say, you're far more likely to have good things happen.

Offense seems to be down a bit all around baseball, so it's only fair to pick another team for comparison to see if the Mets are the exception or the rule. I ran the numbers for the Marlins, since many would agree that they have been playing *better* than expectations. Again, only players with 75 plate appearances are included.

Luis Gonzalez and Mike Jacobs are both in the red, but the Marlins have five regulars who have dramatically outperformed their expected BABIP and seven with deltas higher than any regular position player on the Mets. That's a stark contrast, and it does help to explain why the Marlins have been playing so extraordinarily well despite countless predictions to the contrary.

I haven't run full team numbers, nor have I run player numbers for every team in the league, but this is at least a tiny snapshot of what the Mets have been dealing with. It's very easy to say that the Mets' hitters haven't been as bad as the results would indicate, but it certainly helps your argument when you have some data to pack up those outlandish claims. None of this changes what has already happened, but if the Mets continue to maintain high line drive rates then there is a very strong chance that their luck will improve and those liners will start finding holes in the defense.

Mets

Jose Reyes SS
Ryan Church RF
David Wright 3B
Carlos Beltran CF
Moises Alou LF
Carlos Delgado 1B
Brian Schneider C
Damion Easley 2B
Claudio Vargas RHP

Nationals

Felipe Lopez 2B
Cristian Guzman SS
Ryan Zimmerman 3B
Aaron Boone 1B
Austin Kearns RF
Elijah Dukes CF
Wily Mo Pena LF
Jesus Flores C
Tim Redding RHP

Discussion starter: How many starts will Claudio Vargas make for the Mets this season?

Great win for the Mets last night, not that I saw any of it. Tuesday is 'Free Movie Night' at Clearview Cinemas if you happen to be raped in the wallet subscribe to all three of Cablevision's services (TV, internet, phone), so we try to find our way to the movie theater as often as we can to take advantage of the offer. Despite the lure of free entertainment, we didn't really see too many movies this year, mostly because Kim is a science teacher and regularly brings home the requisite mountain of homework/tests/labs to grade. But with summer blockbusters squarely within shouting distance (the new Indiana Jones flick comes out next week) and her enthusiasm for the job waning a bit, we're going to try to make it to the theater far more often in the coming weeks.

Having not seen the Mets game save the post-game highlights, and feeling a bit disingenuous about recapping a game I didn't watch, I'm going to write about the movie instead. We have three Clearview Cinemas within a twenty minute drive of our house, so there's usually a pretty good selection to choose from. None of the individual theaters has more than four or five movies showing at a time, but you can still count on most of the popular movies playing at at least one of them. There are a couple of movies out right now that we wanted to see and have heard good things about: the first is Forgetting Sarah Marshall featuring Jason Segel and produced by Hollywood comedy machine Judd Apatow (who, incidentally, produced two of my favorite but tragically short-lived series of the past decade in Freaks and Geeks and Undeclared, both of which cast a certain Mr. Segel in starring and recurring roles, respectively).

The second movie under consideration was Iron man, which has drawn rave reviews despite two initial impediments to success:

1. The seemingly questionable casting of Robert Downey Jr. in the titular role
2. The fact that almost every other comic book movie in recent memory has sucked (Hulk, Dare Devil, Fantastic Four)

Kim kinda wanted to see the comedy, but the action flick was playing in a theater closer to home, so we went with Iron Man. I might have also considered Baby mama because I enjoy Tina Fey's writing and self-deprecating style (30 Rock is a gem) and because Amy Poehler may very well be the funniest woman on the planet (her husband Will Arnett is no slouch himself).

In Iron Man, Downey as billionaire industrialist Tony Stark (and eventually Iron Man) manages to turn a potential casting distaster into a stroke of genius. The supporting cast was equally strong, with Jeff Bridges (aka The Dude, or El Duderino if you're not into the whole brevity thing) as Stark's business partner (and eventually foil) Obediah Stane and Gwyneth Paltrow as Stark's assistant Pepper Potts.

Jon Favreau directed the film and actually had a small role as Stark's man-servant, though whenever I see Favreau I can't help but think of him as man-beast Gutter in PCU.

The movie itself was very strong, with good dialogue, great action sequences and believable CGI. Much of the film's two hours is spent on Stark's fabrication and testing of two different Iron Man suits: one as a necessity to escape captor from a cave in Afghanistan (!), and the other upon returning to the states and devoting his energy to helping mankind instead of destroying it. This is all fine, as the mechanization of Stark is integral to the character's story and the scenes flow well and move along with very little drag.

Unfortunately, spending so much time on the process leaves little room for plot. It's a comic book, so I guess there's an endemic lack of ingenuity here, but we wind up with the standard friend-turned-foe story with the requisite revelations of deceit and malfeasance. Good guy becomes bad guy, bad guy betrays good guy, bad guy and good guy square off in predictable denouement, good guy wins! All this isn't to say that the story fails or isn't enjoyable; it works, it's just nothing new.

Ultimately, Iron Man is a very entertaining and well-cast movie that works most of the time and only really struggles in the same way that most comic book plots struggle: because they are all essentially the same feet wearing slightly different shoes. Accepting this caveat, I would definitely recommend this movie to anyone looking for a solid flick without too many intellectual entanglements.

Now, for the Mets.

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Mr. Met: Ryan Church, +35.2%
Mr. Regret: Jose Reyes, -16.9%
(Non-)Clutchiest Plate Appearance: Church fliner that Kearns mis-played into a two-run double, +27.0%
(Non-)Clutchiest Pitch: Zimmerman two-run homer off Maine, -19.7%
WPA by Offense: +23.4%
WPA by Pitchers: +26.6%
WPA by Opponent: +0.0%

• Fernando Tatis! A hit! A run! No comprende!
• John Maine threw a lot of pitches in six innings, but he struck out five batters while only walking one, allowed just two hits and lowered his season ERA to 2.81. His FIP is 4.01, but he has consistently outperformed his FIP by a half-run or more and is one of those pitchers that I refer to as DIPS Darlings. Certain pitchers are able to maintain BABIPs considerably below the league average of .300, and Maine has been one of them throughout his young career. His fastball is a little sneaky and maybe that helps keep his hits allowed to a minimum.
• Brian Schneider with a double? This after hitting a homerun a few days ago? The last thing I expected out of this week was two non-singles from Schneider, who has done a fine job getting on base this season despite zilch in the power department. Nice to see his slugging percentage finally surge above his batting average.

Discussion starter: Who would you rather have pitching the most important inning of the season: Jorge Sosa or Guillermo Mota?

The Mets have a lot of problems right now, the least of which is probably the performance of their fifth starter. However, has anyone else noticed that Nelson Figueroa has been -- not to get too technical here -- pretty effing crummy of late? He was the Princess of Flushing after his first two starts against the Brewers and Nationals, but he has been mostly dreadful over his last four starts.

A little arithmetic gives us 20.1 innings pitched over those last four starts, including 17 runs allowed, 18 walks, 27 hits and three Mets losses. That's more than two baserunners every inning and an RA of more than 7.5. I realize that Figgy got off to a good start, and I don't enjoy ragging on him because he's a good guy and a fun story. Nevertheless, you've got a tough row to hoe if you're going to argue that he is really giving the Mets a good chance to win every time out. Or any time out, for that matter.

Pedro Martinez is throwing in Port St. Lucie, but there is no immediate timetable for his return and I think many would be surprised if he returned before June. Tony Armas is pitching pretty well in New Orleans. Despite a 1-3 record, he has a 3.02 ERA and a solid 36-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 47.2 innings.

The Mets are said to be considering calling up Adam Bostick to pitch on Wednesday, though he hasn't been anything special in seven starts this season. His 3.83 ERA is acctually second on the team to Armas, though the 26 strikeouts and 16 walks in 40 innings is hardly the stuff of legend. Claudio Vargas has made two starts since being called up to Triple-A and, though his 4.91 ERA is uninspiring, his 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 11 innings is a good start.

Freddy Garcia is out there, but he won't be ready until July at the earliest.

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Mr. Met: Damion Easley, +13.6%
Mr. Regret: Nelson Figueroa, -41.9%
(Non-)Clutchiest Plate Appearance: Easley homerun off Perez, +10.6%
(Non-)Clutchiest Pitch: Flores 2-run double off Figueroa, -24.5%
WPA by Offense: +3.5%
WPA by Pitchers: -53.5%
WPA by Opponent: +0.0%

• If there was ever any doubt before, it should be clear as Crystal Gravy that Jorge Sosa needs to hit the road. The Mets will have to eat $1.5 million or so, but to keep him on the roster at the expense of Joe Smith is quite simply bad baseball. Matt Wise is ready to come off the disabled list and the Mets need to make a decision; let's hope they make the right one.
• Smith's presence in the bullpen is even more critical in light of Duaner Sanchez's recent poor outings and Aaron Heilman's ongoing struggles.
• Billy Wagner struck out the side in a meaningless ninth inning. When you look at closers around the league crumbling before our very eyes you really start to recognize what a terrific signing Wagner turned out to be. Four years and $40+ million for a 34-year-old closer seemed like a lot of money at the time, but he really is one of the few dominant, dependable closers in baseball.

Discussion starter: The NYCEDC is working to develop Willets Point, the dumpy, chop-shop-infested area around Shea. Are you in favor of the development effort?

Discussion starter: If the Mets could sign Oliver Perez to a five-year, $65 million deal right now, would you do it?